Bloomberg 2012

I think there is a real possibility Mike Bloomberg will be our first Jewish POTUS in 2013. Although this sounds rather absurd at first hear me out:

1. We are on the brink of a severe recession. Opinions range from the extremely pessimistic Nouriel Roubini, who recently stated “we are literally one step away from collapse of entire financial system and even the corporate system," to Warren Buffett, who told Charley Rose this week "in my adult lifetime I don't think I've ever seen people as fearful, economically, as they are now... The economy is going to be getting worse for a while." Even Goldman Sachs came out with a report this week stating the recession will be "significantly deeper" than expected and the unemployment rate will rise to 8 percent by the end of the year (the current rate is 6.1 percent). Scary, scary stuff.

2. President Obama -- yes he is going to win -- will be facing a horrible political situation. The promised government programs he is campaigning on right now are not going to happen. We will not have the money. How much more can we borrow from foreign creditors -- especially if the current bailout does not work? Obama will probably move forward reregulating the economy, which will hinder our countries ability to grow out of the impending recession.

3. Voters in 2012 will truly be looking for change. I believe voters will blame the GOPpers for getting us into the impending severe recession and will be impatient with Obama as his public policies fail to turn around the economy. Voters will be looking for systematic change -- not just a change in parties. By self-financing his campaign as an indepedent Bloomberg will be able to brand himself as a economic expert not beholden to corporations or unions.

The base of the Democratic Party will end up taking the party and Obama too far left in the next four years, creating a nice sweet spot for Bloomberg to run as a true centrist. The American public, as much as many progressives don't want to admit this, will not vote for a FDR big government liberal -- even in the case of a severe recession. Of course voters will tilt leftward when voting for the POTUS in such a scenario. However, the American public has changed significantly since 1932. Not only is stock ownership more widespread, we have the example of the Soviet Union to demonstrate that government does a horrible job of trying to "manage" the economy.

Biden/Palin IV

Overall: Considering how low expectations were of Palin she did alright. Biden completely won the debate on policy and knowledge, yet Palin may come out ahead because she didn't completely embarrass herself -- she didn't leave the podium crying that the "elite media" was out to get her.

Ifill did an awful job moderating the debate. She asked horrible follow up questions. It seemed like she was scared of coming across as out to get Palin than she clammed up for 90 minutes.

Observations 70-120 minutes:
- Biden killed the question on how he would be different than an Obama adminstration. Great job.
- "Team of mavericks." 'God' help us all if Palin becomes POTUS.
- Palin completely bullshitted her way through education. She said absolutely nothing of substance.
- I'm glad to see Biden took on McCain's maverick status head on with 7 minutes left. This was the most important moment of the debate IMHO.

Biden/Palin III

Foreign Policy Bottom line: Biden, by essentially debating with McCain and not Palin, just destroyed the Alaskan governor in the foreign policy part of the debate. In fact, Palin looks ridiculous when talking about foreign policy. It is simply incredible just how unbelievably unprepared she is to be the VP. Unreal...

Observations (Foreign Policy)
- Biden did a great job communicating the Dem ticket's Iraq policy. Dude is en fuego 47 minutes in.
- She is obsessed with talking about Israel. Governor, you realize there is more to U.S. foreign policy than Israel? Right....?
- 20 minutes in and Palin finally gets a hit. Calling Biden out for voting for the war prior to being against it. "America craves straight talk."

Policy (Foreign Policy)
- Palin has no policy thoughts here beyond talking points (which I doubt she really understands). Thus I have little say here.
- Biden is spot on the Ahmadinejad does not control Iran -- the mullahs do. In fact, Ahmadinejad is not even in the top 15 most powerful political figures in the country.
- Wow, that is incredible. Three weeks of funding Iraq is equal to 7 years in Afghanistan. That is incredible. The most suscinct point I have ever heard how the current POTUS completely took his eye off the ball.

Biden/Palin II

Thoughts 15 minutes through 45 minutes (Domestic Issues)
- Great job by Palin to call out Biden's stupid comment that the rich paying higher taxes is "patriotic."
- Palin must be either on speed or chugged a gallon of coffee before the debate. Not only is she speaking super fast, every time they show her legs she can't stop moving.
- "Ultimate bridge to nowhere." This line had more potential yet Biden should have slowed down his tempo before unleashing the comment.
- Biden is coming across as a 19th century populist. Granted, I've never been a fan of his big-government beliefs. However, playing this role allows Obama to seem more centrist and safe to the white U.S. electorate.
- 24 minutes in. Palin addresses her own limitations head on by saying "I've only been at this five weeks and haven't promised anything..." Effective response.
- Check out CNN vs. PBS on HD. Palin and Biden look much better on PBS. Both have a darker tone on PBS, real bizarre. Besides, CNN has too much crap going on on the screen in HD.
- Palin is settling down 30 minutes in. She looks real confident and secure talking about an issue (one of the only issues) she knows about... drill baby drill?
- However, she clearly knows little about climate change. I think this is Biden's best moment in the debate so far. Dude has a mastery of this issue and has a great response to Palin.
- Interesting Palin brought in a comment where Biden mentioned rape. That's a bit aggressive.

Policy
- Biden on taxes... "it's fairness." No Joe, a taxation system should not be about "fairness." It should be about collecting revenues as effeciently as possible with as little damage to the economy as possible.
- Palin seems to believe that man's activities is not the primary driver behind climate change. Seriously Governor? She is incredibly weak on this issue. Just wow.
- "Clean green natural gas." Really Governor? Nice eyebrow raise. Althought it is better than coal, it is hardly clean nor green.

Biden v. Palin I

Bottom line: Palin is effective so far connecting as "somebody like me" -- which is really underrated in all communication plans.

Background
- I still don't believe Gwen Ifill didn't disclose to the McCain campaign that she was writing a book that included Obama in the title that was to be released on inauguration day next year. Full disclosure? Ifill clearly believes this applies to the people she covers.

Thoughts through 15 minutes
- Palin looks great in black.
- What's up with Biden's eyes? It looks like the make-up job stopped short of his lower eye lid. Bizarre
- Palin looks more confident than I thought she would 8 minutes in. Nice wink after responding to Biden's call out of McCain's comments that the economy remained strong.
- She is speaking way, way too damn fast. Still is still a little -- no very -- nervous.
- Does anybody really care what Biden is saying? Everybody is far more interested to see if Palin implodes.

Couric Interview with Palin.

Although I plan on voting for Obama this is still painful to watch. Palin looks completely out of her league. Granted, she has electoral advantages. However, the thought of the Alaskan governor leading the most powerful nation in the world is rather frightening.

Presidential Debates in 1080

First thought on tonight's debate... just imagine how much worse Nixon would have looked in high definition in 1960.

Bottom line is Obama demonstrated to the American people that he has the fortitude to be POTUS. He passed the credibility test... and he didn't even need a teleprompter.

Observations

- Interesting that Obama calls the GOP standard bearer John while McCain calls his counterpart Senator Obama.
- Nice of McCain to start with thoughts on Ted Kennedy. Reinforces his image as being bipartisan. I'm surprised Obama didn't mention this first.
- Although I disagree with Obama on the regulation issue (I am after all a proud libertarian) he did a good job talking about the issue without going over the top as a "progressive" populist.
- 20 minutes in it looks like McCain has gotten underneath Obama's skin. I'm surprised as I expected the opposite to happen. Obama needs to watch his demeanor when McCain is speaking and not commit an Al Gore type mistake.
- 40 minutes in Obama has grown more confident and looks cool, calm and collected.
- Obama has a good issue with "Google for the government." Demonstrates he understands how technology can help improve and reform government.
- 45 minutes in and it looks like McCain is getting angry. Obama did a good job of deflecting his lack of support of the surge and McCain looks pissed off Obama called him out for his ludicrous claims he made in 2003. I'm sure McCain feels he should own this issue and is frustrated that Obama is getting the best of him.
- How many times did McCain start with "Obama doesn't understand..." At least three I think in the first hour. An effective strategy to reinforce the narrative McCain is trying to attach to his opponent.
- McCain had an effective zinger on Obama's statement meeting foreign leaders without preconditions. Obama did the best he could to mitigate the potential political campaign landmine, yet by staying on this issue McCain had the first zinger in the debate.
- 70 minutes in and it looks like McCain is getting real testy when Obama is speaking. Obama has gotten to McCain and I'm waiting for McCain to lose his temper.
- 85 minutes in... by stopping a tit-for-tat on alternative energy and allowing Lehrer to move on Obama helped to diminish the perception that he is arrogant.
- 90 minutes in McCain gets another 10 second zinger in stating he did not believe Obama was ready to lead the country.

Policy

- Obama is correct on earmarks. Don't get me wrong earmarks are a problem. However, eliminating them will hardly get our government back in the black.
- I'm glad McCain brought up nuclear power. Nuclear has to play a larger role in our energy infrastructure.
- McCain is getting religion on invading other countries?!?! Paraphrasing McCain... "We shouldn't bomb Pakistan as we need the people to be with us." No shit. So why again was invading Iraq a good idea if your so worried what other nations think of us? Is all this talk of invading Russia going to help our ties with Russia? "Bomb, bomb, bomb Iran" is going to help our ties with that nation?
- Hey McCain... Pakistan is still a failed state (reflection on McCain stating Obama didn't understand Pakistan was a failed state prior to Musharraf). Pakistan will never be a cohesive country. The name Pakistan combines the name of four ethnic groups to create a false sense of nationalism.
- McCain's "League of Democracies" is ludicrous. Excluding China from any new international organizations that are created is a horrible idea.
- Nice point by Obama that we need Russia and China to craft a solution on the Iran issue.
- John Bolton would be proud of McCain's perspective on North Korea.
- Obama was solid on Russia. The idea of Georgia joining NATO is simply INSANE. Are we really prepared to invade Russia if Russia steps on Georgia's toes again? Georgia does not even have clear borders!

Updates on the Race to be 44

Thoughts on a few recent developments:

1) Brent Scowcroft Stays Neutral: This one really surprised me. Scowcroft is a widely respected and admired foreign policy guru. The book he co-authored with 41, A World Transformed, is an excellent discussion of the international developments that happened during the administration of 41.

The decision by Colin Powell, and now Scowcroft, not to endorse McCain -- that is the real story, not that they are "neutral" -- demonstrates the massive disagreements that exist between the "realist" and "neoconservative" camps in the GOP. Clearly these huge nonendorsements by two heavyweights show that McCain's foreign policy would just be an extension of the current administration's policies (McCain and Cheney's recent dustup is just personal and has little to do with policy... IMO).

2) Paris Hilton's Response to McCain: Best line was "that wrinckly white haired guy." However, it was painful to watch as Hilton is simply an awful actress.

Bonus note: Absolutely hilarious that the new Madden '09 has Brett Favre on the cover as a Packer. Although EA Sports is going to get a ton of press around its product launch on August 12, I'm sure they would have picked somebody else in hindsight.

The Arrogance of the New Yorker

Some random thoughts for a beautiful Sunday in Los Angeles.

1. Just imagine the media cycle if the July 21 cover of the New Yorker was on the National Review, or Weekly Standard. Do you think the response would have been the same? Doubtful to say the least.

2. Oh the arrogance of New York liberals, thinking that this cover will help Obama's image versus reinforcing ridiculous stereotypes held by many in the country. I imagine many will cancel their subscriptions of the weekly after this debacle. So why would the outlet do it? To force Obama to the left... doubtful. Probably just complete sheer arrogance... at the cost of subscriptions and a lose of respect from media observers such as myself.

3. At least the New Yorker forced the McCain campaign to agree with the Obama camp on something. This has been a pattern of the McCain campaign, following the media cycle versus leading it.

It truly baffles me why McCain did not use the period between early February through June to define Obama in the terms that suited the GOP. Following in the footsteps of a President with less than a 30 percent approval rating, one would think McCain would realize he would have to run a near perfect campaign to claim the Oval Office. However, instead of setting the November election on terms favorable to the GOP, McCain had a completely disorganized campaign message and team... and even took off most weekends from the campaign.

What we have hear... is a failure... to communicate

This news story I read awhile back over at the Web site of the Atlantic was just shocking -- and I am one that is not easily shocked. Apparently numerous offices in the U.S. Department of Indian Affairs were without access to the Internet for seven years... SEVEN YEARS.

I encourage the readers of this blog to check out Maria Streshinsky's post to get the full scoop. I will state however that it is practically unreal how management ever let this situation deteriorate to the point that it did. We are living and participating in a world where access to information is just critical to be efficient and productive at one's job.

Furthermore, it boggles my mind the lost opportunity cost in man hours wasted by this bureaucratic problem.